Climate modeling
A simple model
Global climate models
The above model aggregates the whole planet as a single systems. To correctlipreditc climate, or weather, the surface of the EArth is divided in small cells (of 200 Km size) subdvided in multiple layers (20 to 40) , for a total that can be of a million cells. See (Bralower and Bice 2023, sec. 4.3) for a desccription of f how General Circulation model work. The initial conditions of oeach cell may describe :
- the type of material (air, soil, water, etc.),
- temperature,
- salinity of the oceans,
- humidity of the air,
- greenhouse gas concentrations,
- insolation,
- and a whole host of other variables and constants.
Greehouse emissions are a key driver nt hemodel predictions.IPCC has developed a number of scnarios. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has developed a whole set of scenarios (about 40) that represent the possible carbon emissions history for the next 100 years. The carbon emission is used as a key variable in driving climate modeling for each scenario. These scenarios are known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and each one is based on an emissions trajectory. more about the whole set of emissions scenarios at Wikipedia: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(link is external).
Integrated Assesment Models
NGFS
Destination Earth
Destination Earth [WWW Document], n.d. . Destination Earth. URL https://destination-earth.eu/ (accessed 12.1.24)
IAM : https://platform.destine.eu/
Note references
Earth as a system see https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/earth-system (“UCAR,” n.d.)
Climate modelling : https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/node/670 (Bralower and Bice 2023 module 3 lab) the original Stella model is available here